Melissa’s crawl through the Caribbean could unleash catastrophic flooding and destructive winds

By CNN Meteorologist Briana Waxman

(CNN) — Tropical Storm Melissa is barely moving through the Caribbean, and that’s exactly what makes it so dangerous. The longer it lingers, the more rain it dumps. Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican Republic could face days of relentless downpours and landslides.

As of Thursday morning, Melissa was about 240 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds near 50 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. It’s drifting west at just 3 mph, slower than the average person on an afternoon stroll. The storm is stalled over water that’s record-hot – perfect fuel for a storm to explode in strength.

A hurricane watch has been issued for parts of Haiti and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica.

Melissa is forecast to reach hurricane strength by the weekend and could intensify rapidly into a major hurricane – Category 3 or greater – by early next week. If it does, it would be the fourth of the first five Atlantic hurricanes this season to reach Category 4 or stronger, something seen only three other times on record: 1932, 1999 and 2010, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

The storm is already bringing heavy rain to parts of the Caribbean. Forecasters warn of up to 10 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals topping a foot across southern Haiti, southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica through Saturday. The hurricane center says life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely in mountainous areas.

Why Melissa’s setup is so alarming

• It’s barely moving. When a storm crawls like this, rainfall piles up over the same towns for days. A similar setup produced catastrophic floods in 2017 with Harvey, which dumped over four feet of rain on parts of Texas, and in 2019 with Dorian, which dropped nearly 2 feet of rain in the Bahamas and over a foot in parts of South Carolina.
• Mountains magnify the flood threat. Haiti and the Dominican Republic’s steep terrain will force air upward, wringing out moisture from the storm, just like squeezing a wet sponge, turning tropical humidity into torrents racing downhill. Mudslides are all but guaranteed in this scenario. We saw this play out when Helene devastated western North Carolina last year. Helene was moving more quickly than Melissa, which will pack even more of a punch as it stalls out over similar steep terrain.
• The Caribbean Sea heat runs deep. The Caribbean’s record-warm waters extend far below the surface, preventing the usual “stirring up” of cooler water that can weaken hurricanes. Melissa is expected to strengthen as it meanders, feasting on that deep reservoir of heat.
• It’s a dangerous mix of worst scenarios. Melissa combines the worst features of past catastrophic storms: slow movement, mountains enhancing rainfall and potential for 130+ mph sustained winds. This type of storm can drench and destroy everything in its path. Also, it’s targeting islands, not open coastline. That means storm surge, destructive winds and days of unrelenting rain could all hit at once.

Two potential scenarios, both devastating

Melissa’s exact track remains uncertain, but the range of possibilities is narrowing and no potential outcome looks good. The storm is trapped between competing weather systems that are locking it in place over the north-central Caribbean. That leaves Jamaica and Hispaniola squarely in the danger zone.

Scenario 1: The long, slow drift west.
If Melissa continues creeping west or west-northwest, it could linger south of Jamaica into early next week – right over some of the warmest water on Earth. That setup could supercharge the storm, potentially pushing it to Category 4 strength or higher by Monday. In that case, Jamaica and southern Haiti would face days of destructive winds, storm surge and torrential rain.

Scenario 2: A faster pull north.
If the jet stream tugs Melissa northward sooner, the storm could move toward Haiti or the Dominican Republic this weekend. That would cap its intensity a bit but put heavily populated, flood-prone regions directly in the crosshairs. Hispaniola’s terrain would wring out even more rain, heightening the risk of catastrophic flash floods and mudslides.

Either path brings days of flooding followed by potentially devastating winds and surge.

The US mainland is not completely out of the woods, but a direct US hit looks unlikely. If Melissa takes longer to turn north, it could bend toward eastern Cuba or the Bahamas before curving into the Atlantic. Even so, rough surf and rip currents could spread along the US East Coast next week – the calling card of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

A late-season storm supercharged by a hotter world

Hurricanes usually lose steam by late October, when cooler water and stronger wind shear take over. Not this year. The Caribbean remains record-hot, with ocean warmth extending deep below the surface – enough to keep Melissa strengthening.

Melissa’s anticipated explosion in strength from tapping into that energy is something that’s happening more often as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution. Just this year, three of the four Atlantic hurricanes to date underwent extreme rapid intensification: Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto.

It’s part of a broader pattern scientists have been warning about: as the planet warms, hurricanes are intensifying faster and dumping more rain, especially in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.

Melissa’s path and strength will keep evolving in the days ahead, but the warning signs are already there: a near-stationary storm over record heat, surrounded by mountains and millions of vulnerable people.

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