Global life expectancy is back to pre-pandemic levels, but deaths among teens and young adults are rising

By Deidre McPhillips, CNN

(CNN) — Humans are living 20 years longer than they were in 1950, according to new research with all 204 countries and territories studied reporting declines in their mortality rates since then. But vast inequities remain, and there is an “emerging crisis” of rising death rates among adolescents and young adults.

In 2023, life expectancy was 76.3 years for women and 71.5 years for men, according to analyses published Sunday in the journal The Lancet by the University of Washington School of Medicine’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) – returning to pre-pandemic levels after falling during the height of Covid.

Covid-19 fell from the leading cause of death in 2021 to 20th place in 2023, with heart disease and stroke rising to again become the leading causes of death globally.

Deaths worldwide have generally been shifting away from infectious disease, with sharp declines in deaths from measles, diarrheal diseases and tuberculosis, according to IHME.

Noncommunicable diseases now account for about two-thirds of global mortality and morbidity, including both deaths and broader burden from disease. Although mortality rates for heart disease and stroke have declined since 1990, rates have increased for diabetes, chronic kidney disease and Alzheimer’s disease.

“The rapid growth in the world’s aging population and evolving risk factors have ushered in a new era of global health challenges,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said. “The evidence presented in the Global Burden of Disease study is a wake-up call, urging government and health care leaders to respond swiftly and strategically to the disturbing trends that are reshaping public health needs.”

About half of the world’s disease burden is preventable, according to the new research, attributable to dozens of modifiable risk factors.

High blood pressure, smoking, high cholesterol, diabetes and obesity are among the 10 risk factors with the greatest effect, IHME found. Between 2010 and 2023, there was an 11% greater burden of disease due to high body mass index – measured by years of life lost due to disability or premature death – and a 6% increase due to high blood sugar.

Environmental factors such as particulate matter pollution and lead exposure were also among the most significant risk factors, along with those related to newborn health including low birthweight and short gestation.

Additionally, mental health plays a significant role in global mortality, according to the new research, with burden from anxiety and depression surging.

While the global population is growing and aging, death rates among children and young adults have increased in some parts of the world.

Among adolescents and young adults, the largest increase in deaths over the past decade or so was among those ages 20 to 39 in high-income North America, mainly due to suicide, drug overdose and high quantities of alcohol, according to the IHME research.

Deaths among those ages 5 to 19 also increased in Eastern Europe, high-income North America and the Caribbean, and among adolescents and young adults in sub-Saharan Africa, due to infectious diseases and unintentional injuries.

Globally, for children 5 to 14, iron deficiency was the leading risk, followed by others related to unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene and malnutrition. For the 15 to 49 age group, the top two risks were unsafe sex and occupational injuries, followed by high BMI, high systolic blood pressure and smoking.

Overall, life expectancy ranged from as high as 83 years in high-income regions to as low as 62 years in sub-Saharan Africa, IHME found.

This new research highlights an “urgent need for policymakers to expand health priorities,” IHME researchers said – especially among adolescents and young adults – rather than limiting resources.

“Decades of work to close the gap in low-income regions with persistent health inequities are in danger of unraveling due to the recent cuts to international aid,” said Emmanuela Gakidou, senior author of the new studies and professor at IHME. “These countries rely on global health funding for life-saving primary care, medicine, and vaccines. Without it, the gap is sure to widen.”

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