Parts of Texas are under ‘extremely critical’ fire weather risk today — the highest threat level
By Monica Garrett
Parts of Texas are under an extreme fire threat on Thursday, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
Winds of 25-35 mph and gusts to 45 mph combined with very dry conditions create the threat. The highest winds are likely to coincide with peak afternoon high temperatures.
“A highly volatile fire environment is expected to develop within the Edwards Plateau today,” the SPC warned Thursday morning. They issued an “extremely critical” fire risk (level 3 of 3) for the Edwards Plateau and the Permian Basin in Texas, including San Angelo.
“Reports of extreme fire behavior the last couple of days, occurring with less significant meteorological conditions, suggest that an upgrade to extremely critical is warranted,” the SPC said.
The National Weather Service in San Angelo noted an “ongoing drought” in many places and that “most areas have not seen significant rainfall for much of the winter. This has prevented the normal March green-up and many areas are left with a large, dry fuel load.” This means plants don’t have any moisture in them and are more likely to burn.
“We’ve all seen the videos of how quickly Christmas trees can ignite towards the end of Christmas season,” CNN meteorologist Judson Jones says. “This is a similar situation. All the vegetation is dried out and will only take a spark to ignite.”
Drought conditions across Texas have worsened in recent months, with over 90% of the state now in drought, according to the US Drought Monitor update released Thursday morning. Over 40% of the state is in the worst two categories of drought — extreme and exceptional — all of that developing in the last three months. These two worst categories are up 5% in just the last week.
These dry fuels and gusty winds have NWS San Angelo warning that very high to extreme fire behavior is possible Thursday, adding that any fires that start may spread out of control.
A large ‘critical risk’ area (level 2 of 3) surrounds the highest threat area and stretches from central Texas to the Texas/Mexico border in far West Texas. People in these areas should also be on high alert. Dry conditions and winds of 20 mph and gusts to 35 mph are forecast here Thursday.
As the weather system bringing the dry, windy conditions to the Southwest and Texas departs to the east with severe storms, fire concerns will lessen some. Another system is expected later this weekend to increase the fire weather risk again — something that residents may need to get used to with ongoing drought conditions expected to continue.
The number of wildfires across the US this year is well above the 10-year average, as of the latest report from National Interagency Fire Center Friday. Since January 1, 11,663 wildfires have burned 287,468 acres. The 10-year average is 5,819 wildfires.
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