Afghanistan and Pakistan exchanged their deadliest fire in years. Here’s what we know

By Lex Harvey, Sophia Saifi and Masoud Popalzai, CNN

Islamabad (CNN) — Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have flared in recent days with the exchange of deadly gunfire between the neighbors that has stoked fears of a wider conflict.

The fighting followed strikes in the Afghan capital Kabul and the border province of Paktika last Thursday that the Taliban blamed on Pakistan, though Islamabad has not officially acknowledged the attacks.

The latest flare-up coincided with a historic trip by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to Pakistan’s rival India, triggering concern in Islamabad.

Experts warn these latest attacks could signal a new era of instability for the neighbors, who have maintained steady and strategic relations for years despite frequent skirmishes along their disputed border.

Here’s what we know about the violence, which prompted calls to de-escalate from China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and an offer from US President Donald Trump to broker peace.

Sharpest escalation in years

The Taliban accused Pakistan of conducting an “unprecedented, violent and reprehensible” attack on targets in Kabul and Patika on Thursday night.

Islamabad has not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks. But during a press briefing Friday, Lt. Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, a Pakistani military official, said there is “evidence” that “Afghanistan is being used as a base of operations for carrying out terrorism in Pakistan.”

Pakistan has long accused Kabul of harboring the militant group the Pakistani Taliban (known as the TTP), which Afghanistan’s Taliban denies. Pakistan has faced a surge in Islamist violence since the Taliban swept Kabul in 2021, emboldening militant groups.

On Saturday night, the Taliban launched what it said were retaliatory attacks against Pakistani forces in various areas near the Kunar and Nangarhar border provinces.

Pakistan responded to the attack, which it called “unprovoked,” by conducting strikes and physical raids against Taliban camps and posts and terrorist training facilities and support networks in Afghanistan, according to a statement by the military.

The Taliban said it had halted its military operation around midnight following mediation from Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Both countries claimed higher death tolls than their neighbor acknowledged.

Pakistan claimed to have killed more than 200 Taliban and militants, a figure far beyond the Taliban’s nine claimed losses.

The Taliban, meanwhile, said it killed 58 Pakistani soldiers – more than double Pakistan’s 23 claimed losses – according to Mujahid.

CNN has not independently verified these death tolls.

Long and complicated history

Pakistan and Afghanistan have a long and complicated history and have engaged in frequent clashes along their mountainous, 1,600-mile disputed border, known as the “Durand Line.”

Pakistan was one of the main backers of the Taliban during its insurgency against the Afghan government in the early 2000s.

The two countries are also big trading partners and share strong people-to-people ties. Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees over decades of war, though has moved to expel many of them in recent years, citing the risk of terrorism.

But Afghan-Pakistan relations have soured amid an uptick in militant violence against Pakistan.

The TTP has re-emerged as one of the country’s biggest national security threats, conducting 600 attacks against Pakistani forces in the past year, according to a recent report by the independent nonprofit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED).

Following Saturday’s attacks, the Pakistan military said while Pakistan prefers diplomacy, it will “not tolerate the treacherous use of Afghan soil for terrorism against Pakistan.”

Pakistan said on Sunday it had closed its two main border crossings with Afghanistan.

The India factor

Pakistan’s military noted that the “serious provocation” occurred during a recent visit by the Taliban’s foreign minister to India, Pakistan’s main regional rival. The two most recently fought a brief conflict earlier this year.

The Taliban and India made no secret of their closer ties on Friday when New Delhi said it would reopen an embassy in Kabul, calling Muttaqi’s visit “an important step in advancing our ties and affirming the enduring friendship” between the two countries.

Islamabad and New Delhi have “competed bloodily for influence in Afghanistan for decades,” Antoine Levesques, Senior Fellow for South and Central Asian Defense, Strategy and Diplomacy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies told CNN.

Levesques said the Taliban’s visit to India had been a “step-change” for India-Taliban ties, “raising the feeling of insecurity for Pakistan on both its eastern and western borders.”

Pakistan has long viewed good relations with Afghanistan as key to counterbalancing India, which is why it continued to support the Taliban covertly when it was not in power despite outwardly supporting the US and NATO’s War on Terror, said Pearl Pandya, Senior Analyst, South Asia for ACLED.

“However, this calculation does not appear to have paid out,” Pandya said.

How have other countries reacted?

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, China and Russia all called for de-escalation.

Qatar expressed “concern” over “the potential repercussions for the security and stability of the region” in a statement to X. Saudi Arabia, which recently signed a defense pact with Pakistan, also called for “restraint and dialogue.”

China’s Foreign Ministry said Monday it “sincerely hopes both countries will focus on the bigger picture … and resolve their concerns through dialogue and consultation.” Russia also called for a resolution “through diplomatic means.”

Pandya said she expected China, “which has recently taken on a mediating role between Pakistan and Afghanistan and has economic interests in both countries, to maintain a close eye on the situation.”

The fighting also drew the attention of Trump, who offered to broker peace.

“I hear there’s a war now going on between Pakistan and Afghanistan,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as he flew to Israel on Sunday to mark the deal to end the war in Gaza.

“I’m good at solving wars, I’m good at making peace,” Trump said.

What will this mean for relations moving forward?

While the violence has eased for now, with both countries signaling that they wish to de-escalate, the recent attacks could usher in a new era of instability for the neighbors.

“In the past, cyclical bouts of armed tensions typically have receded once both sides have made their point,” Levesques said, adding that Pakistan’s leadership views its country as a “stability provider for the region.”

Though Islamabad has not claimed direct responsibility for the airstrikes in Kabul, “such an attack would cross a red line in their relations,” Pandya said.

The last airstrikes in Kabul by a foreign power were in 2022 when the US killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, according to ACLED data, Pandya said.

“In terms of the future of the relationship, a lot will depend on whether this escalation leads to a fundamental shift in how the Taliban deals with the TTP, which is really the main issue,” Pandya said.

“The TTP fought alongside the Taliban against the US and NATO forces and there is a reluctance within the Taliban to seriously crack down upon them. It remains to be seen whether the mounting geopolitical costs will prompt a rethink on the part of the Taliban.”

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CNN’s Joyce Jiang contributed reporting.