Kirk’s assassination is forcing politicians to make difficult choices about their safety

By Michael Williams, CNN

(CNN) — The killing of Charlie Kirk is forcing political figures and the people who protect them to make agonizing choices, balancing whether the public’s access to them is worth the risk in this dangerous national moment.

Since Kirk’s assassination, several campaigns or political groups have already called off events out of an abundance of caution. And as the midterm elections approach, candidates will increasingly be forced to weigh their need to connect with constituents and potential voters against the reality of practicing politics at a time of accelerating threats, attempts and slayings.

“The arena they just stepped into, those threats — everything — is on the table,” said Rob Savage, a former special agent in charge of the US Secret Service’s Los Angeles Field Office. “Because it’s just become that politically charged.”

Kirk’s shooting on Wednesday by a gunman perched from an elevated position at an outdoor event at Utah Valley University — similar to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump last year at an outdoor campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania — will likely prompt organizers to move their events indoors as an immediate reaction. But security experts told CNN that threats can manifest anywhere, and solutions aren’t as easy as simply moving inside, stationing personnel on rooftops or deploying drones.

Caleb Gilbert, the owner of an executive protection company whose clients have included tech moguls, A-listers and ultra-high-net-worth families, said Kirk’s death served as a “a deeply penetrating illustration of the frailty of at-risk individuals when a dedicated adversary wants to do harm.”

“At the end of the day, we can have guards, guns, gates, intelligence — we can have everything across the board stacked just right, and we can get it right 20 locations a week for years on end — and the bad actors only have to get it right once,” he said.

A sharp increase in threats

Recent assassinations or attempts have taken place at political rallies, but also at golf courses, homes, baseball practices and grocery stores. And threats aren’t just confined to major national political figures or candidates — they have also been extended toward people who have fewer resources, including state and local officials, school board members, judges, political influencers and all their families.

Princeton University’s Bridging Divides Initiative, which tracks political violence in the United States, has recorded more than 300 instances of threats and harassment against local officials this year, an increase of 9% over last year. Similar trends are emerging for state and federal officials as well as judges.

Matt Gorman, a former communications director for House Republicans’ campaign arm, said the threat of political violence is a “persistent and scary reality” for lawmakers, and House members had already gotten an increase in security funding following a deadly June attack on Minnesota state lawmakers. The fear among current or potential elected officials is “totally justified,” said Amanda Litman, the president of Run for Something, which urges young Democrats to seek public office.

For those making threats, she said, “that fear is the point.”

In the days following Kirk’s killing, several state officials have reported receiving bomb threats, as have historically Black colleges and other universities across the country, as well as the Democratic National Committee office in Washington.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat, and Sen. Ruben Gallego, an Arizona Democrat, both canceled events this weekend out of an abundance of caution, their campaigns said. Ben Shapiro, a conservative commentator, postponed a book signing scheduled to take place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California hours after the shooting. Young America’s Foundation, which works with young conservatives, also canceled a Thursday event in Santa Barbara with Shapiro.

Some of the most important work for security teams that protect contentious public figures happens before their clients appear at events — analyzing threats they have received, triaging their degree of severity and investigating whether the person who made those threats has the capacity to carry them out, or lives near the event location.

Political assassins almost always reveal signs of their intentions to friends, families or in online communities before they carry them out. They “tend to leak their intentions to those around them,” but people listening “invariably think, ‘Oh, he’s just mouthing off,’ when in fact, they’re actually being very serious about wanting to target their adversaries,” said Joshua Sinai, a professor of practice, intelligence and global security studies at Capitol Technology University.

That’s why initiatives like “See something, say something” are so critical, even though they may seem cliché. The suspect in Kirk’s killing, 22-year-old Tyler Robinson, was caught after a manhunt that stretched more than a day after his father recognized him in pictures released by the FBI. The father contacted a family friend, who then contacted authorities.

Using drones and spotters to find snipers

Kirk’s killing is likely to draw some of the same scrutiny about elevated positions lying outside of secured perimeters as the near-successful attempt on Trump in Butler. Gilbert said his company is likely to deploy discreet counter-sniper spotters at his client’s outdoor events. These teams are trained to scan rooftops for threats, even if they don’t have the ability to lethally respond.

“You have the tactical advantage if you’re able to identify anybody that is out of line for that environment,” Gilbert said. “All we have to identify is someone who is an anomaly for that crowd, then we can send our uniformed assets over to follow up, shake their hand and see what’s going on.”

Gilbert said he has been using other tools, like drones, for years to identify threats at outdoor events. But they are not a foolproof solution and should be viewed as part of a larger plan.

“Every outdoor event is unique and requires a professional protective advance to identify and mitigate threats,” said Kevin Dye, a retired Secret Service supervisor and executive protection professional. “While drones have received significant attention lately, they require integration into a complete security plan. Even if there were drones, it would require a comprehensive communications plan to ensure timely notifications of any threat.”

Security teams must confront a constantly evolving array of threats that their clients face. Protection professionals have also had to contend for bombings, arsons, car rammings, cyberattacks and any number of ways their clients can be harmed up close. Long-range attacks, like the ones against Kirk and Trump, are the resurgence of a phenomenon that had been rarely seen since a series of sniper attacks that killed American political figures in the 1960s. Several experts said they see parallels between that era and this one.

“The only saving grace is that it’s harder to get your hands on explosives now,” said Scott Stewart, the vice president of protective intelligence at TorchStone Global and former special agent with the US State Department’s Diplomatic Security Service. “But obviously the guns are still out there, and we’re just going to continue to, I fear, see this polarization and these sorts of politically motivated attacks, until we do have something that causes us to pull together again as a country.”

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CNN’s Arit John contributed to this report.