How far can Democrats ride the affordability argument? A progressive running in deep-red Tennessee is about to find out

By Arit John, CNN

(CNN) — Aftyn Behn, the Democratic nominee for next week’s special election in a heavily Republican Tennessee congressional district, has made affordability concerns a centerpiece of her campaign messaging – mirroring the playbook of the party’s victorious candidates for governor in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this month.

Tuesday’s contest is poised to test just how far Democrats can ride that argument in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 22 points last November.

Republicans are hoping the district’s partisan lean, combined with Behn’s progressive profile and recently resurfaced remarks on policing and other issues, will tilt the race in their favor. Democrats, meanwhile, are banking that voters’ frustration over the GOP agenda in Washington could help them significantly overperform in a race that otherwise wouldn’t be competitive.

“I’ve always said, I don’t care who you voted for,” Behn told CNN in an interview. “I don’t care what political party you belong to, but if you are upset about the cost of living and the chaos of Washington, then I’m your candidate, and I welcome you with open arms.”

The 7th Congressional District, which became vacant earlier this year when former GOP Rep. Mark Green resigned, includes parts of Nashville but is largely rural, stretching from the state’s border with Kentucky in the north to Alabama in the south. As part of the 2022 redistricting process, Tennessee GOP lawmakers redrew Nashville from one solidly Democratic district – long held by moderate Rep. Jim Cooper – into three seats that favored Republicans.

Despite Republicans’ advantage in the district, Democrats saw an opportunity to go on offense after their party’s total vote count in the October primary came about 6,000 shy of the number of ballots cast in the GOP primary. Behn, a state representative and progressive organizer, narrowly won the four-way Democratic primary. Matt Van Epps, a combat veteran and member of the Tennessee Army National Guard running with Trump’s endorsement, beat 10 other candidates to win the Republican nomination.

Drawing national attention

The special election has attracted millions of dollars in spending from outside groups and visits from national figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, with both parties eyeing it as the last major gauge of the country’s political environment before the calendar turns to 2026.

On Monday, Trump will hold his second tele-rally for Van Epps, this time alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson, the candidate’s campaign confirmed. Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will also hold a tele-rally for Behn the same day, a source familiar told CNN.

Of the more than $4 million spent on advertising in the race since the October primary, according to AdImpact, nearly $2.5 million has come from Republicans – much of that focused on painting Behn as out-of-step with the district, highlighting her past comments on topics such as defunding the police. One ad from the Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. includes a clip of Behn describing herself as “a very radical person.”

Opponents have also mined episodes of her podcast including one from 2020 where she talked about her dislike of country music and Nashville’s status as a popular tourist destination, as well as a video Behn recorded in May while monitoring immigration operations in her district in which she said she was “bullying the ICE vehicles and state troopers.” (Behn said her use of the word bullying was satire.)

In her interview with CNN, Behn suggested Republicans have “been caught flat-footed, and they have resorted to personal attacks and character assassination.” Addressing the flurry of reports about her past comments in the final weeks of the campaign, Behn claimed they were “taken out of context and/or mischaracterized.”

Behn added that she was not a lawmaker at the time she made many of the comments, and she’s since “matured” and shifted in the way she approaches politics now that she’s a state representative and not solely an activist.

“I’ve learned a lot, and I would hope that voters in the 7th District would give me the benefit of the doubt, that despite whatever … is being resurfaced right now, that I’m someone who has a track record of trying to unrig the system in favor of working people,” she told CNN.

Tennessee Democrats told CNN they believe voters in the district will weigh other concerns when deciding on their vote in the election.

“It’s really all about the mess in Washington,” said Cooper, referring to the deciding factor of the race. “It’s a very important chance for Tennessee voters in one of the most beautiful parts of Tennessee to really speak loudly and clearly and say, ‘Hey, we’re upset, we need some help, and we’re looking for somebody who’s gonna help us.’”

Behn’s campaign sees the millions that Republicans are pouring into the race as a sign of growing GOP concern. One campaign adviser pointed to a recent ad from Van Epps in which the Republican nominee does not mention the president, but leans into messaging about bringing down costs and making health care more affordable.

“The type of content that you’re seeing from Matt Van Epps is what you’d expect to see from a Blue Dog Democrat in a district that Trump won by five points, not from a Republican in a district that Trump won by 22,” said Ian Russell.

Even as Democrats outperform their 2024 margins in special elections this year, both parties see Van Epps as the favorite heading into Tuesday. “With strong conservative turnout, we will have a win next Tuesday, and I’ll hit the ground running, working with President Trump to lower the cost of living for hardworking Tennessee families,” Van Epps said in a statement to CNN.

Still, Republicans are bracing for a result that will be closer than the more than 20-point margins posted by Trump and Green a year ago.

Chip Saltsman, a Nashville-based Republican strategist not working with the Van Epps campaign, said that unlike Green, an incumbent and former state lawmaker who represented part of the district before the 2022 redistricting, Van Epps is a first-time candidate. He added that while he still expects Van Epps to win, Democrats had done a better job of quickly pivoting to the general election.

“We’ve been so focused on the Republican primary, because that’s really the only game in town for most of the state,” Saltsman said. “Republicans got a little bit of a late start in reminding [voters] that there is actually a general election.”

Scott Golden, the chair of the Tennessee Republican Party, said the party was working to get Van Epp’s message out there, but argued it may been getting lost in the news about Behn’s past comments.

“We’re not nervous that we’re going to lose, but we have to make sure that we work every single second,” Golden said.

A focus on affordability

Behn has made health care and grocery affordability a central part of her message, which she argues has been a common theme of her activism and political work.

“I’m someone who hasn’t equivocated on affordability,” she said. “It has always been my ethos and my organizing agenda, legislative agenda, to make things more affordable for Tennesseans.

Born and raised in Knoxville, Behn attended college in Austin and moved back to Tennessee during Trump’s first term in office. While the president and Republicans pursued their failed 2017 effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, she worked as a community health care organizer for the Tennessee Justice Center, a non-profit law firm based in Nashville.

During her time as a national organizer for Indivisible, a progressive grassroots group, Behn took a leave of absence to help organize protests against the expulsion of two Black lawmakers who protested on the state House floor in favor of gun control. The experience, she said, inspired her to run in a September 2023 special election for a Nashville-area state legislature seat.

She’s emphasized her efforts to repeal the state’s four percent grocery tax, her work advocating against cuts to Medicaid and the cost-of-living issues she says Republicans in Washington have failed to address.

“This race is competitive because the Washington Republican agenda has not delivered,” Behn said. “They have not addressed costs despite the commitment from the Trump administration to make groceries cheaper, utilities cheaper, rent cheaper … and I think people are looking for an opportunity to vote for someone who’s going to usher in an era of change.”

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