Tennessee special election stirs Democratic hopes and GOP fears of an upset

By Kathryn Squyres, CNN

(CNN) — Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, normally a conservative stronghold, is giving Democrats hope that their recently successful message of affordability can help them spring a major upset.

The contest pits Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps against Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn. The winner will replace former Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July.

A month after Democrats running on cost-of-living issues won in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia, both Van Epps and Behn have campaigned on affordability. Reflecting the Republican concerns about a district Green won last year by nearly 22 points, President Donald Trump called into events for Van Epps on Monday and House Speaker Mike Johnson visited Tennessee to campaign with him.

“The problem is, when you have a deep-red district, a lot of the people take for granted that the Republican or the conservative is going to win,” Johnson said in a joint interview with Van Epps on Fox News Monday afternoon.

Democrats have beaten their 2024 margins in US House special elections this year by an average of 16 points. A Democratic victory on Tuesday or even outperforming last year’s results would further embolden Trump’s opponents heading into the midterms.

“Having had the privilege of representing Tennessee in years past, I want to tell you that I have never seen the political tides shift as far and as fast as we’re seeing them move in this election,” said Al Gore, who represented the state in the US Senate before becoming vice president, at a virtual rally Monday night for Behn.

At a campaign event earlier Monday, Johnson held a mic to his phone so the president could be heard exhorting the crowd to vote on Tuesday.

“The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching your district,” Trump said.

Trump added: “It’s a big vote, and it’s gonna show something. It’s got to show that the Republican Party is stronger than it’s ever been.”

Johnson’s control of the House is already fragile. Democrats are poised to fill two vacancies in the new year, one created by the death of Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner, the other by New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill’s resignation. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene also plans to resign in January.

“Right now, every single seat matters, and this special election will fill an important one for us,” Johnson told reporters Monday night after an event in Clarksville.

A focus on Behn’s past comments

Behn has focused on lowering costs since the start of her campaign, saying in a recent ad featuring a mechanical bull that “hardworking Tennesseans are getting a rough ride” from rising healthcare and grocery costs and tariffs.

Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot and state Department of General Services commissioner, isn’t conceding the issue to Behn, arguing in ads that Democrats will raise costs and taxes.

“Affordability is top of our list, and I’m excited to fight alongside the president and the speaker to drive down cost of living,” Van Epps told reporters Monday night.

Van Epps and his allies have also attacked Behn as out of step with the conservative-leaning district. In ads and social media posts, Republicans have highlighted past comments from Behn where she called herself a “very radical person,” expressed support for defunding the police and said she hates Nashville, parts of which she now represents in the state legislature and are in the 7th District.

A recent Van Epps TV ad brands Behn a “radical disaster” and says that “Tennessee can’t afford (Democrats’) radical agenda” of “new taxes that would crush working families.”

Behn rejected that characterization in an interview with CNN.

“I don’t think it’s radical to have spent my entire career organizing to make healthcare more affordable or groceries cheaper,” she said.

Behn also noted that her 2020 calls to defund the police were from before she was a lawmaker and said she’d “matured” since then. She said decisions about law enforcement funding should be made locally.

Van Epps said her calls to defund the police were “unacceptable and disqualifying” in a Fox News interview last week, adding that she stands for “things that are not right for Tennessee and not right for America.”

Behn said her past comments about disliking country music and Nashville came from frustration with the city’s tourism industry, notably the bachelorette parties that are ubiquitous in downtown.

“(Republicans) must’ve loved Nashville so much they cut our congressional district (into) the three Republican districts,” Behn quipped, referencing the state’s previous congressional map, which included a single district covering Nashville before it was redrawn after the 2020 Census.

The 7th District now runs top-to-bottom through middle Tennessee and includes corners of Nashville.

Another referendum in a special election

Between Democratic over-performance in special elections this year and the historically narrow Republican House majority, Tuesday’s race has become a magnet for outside spending from both parties.

Since the primary last month, more than $5 million has been spent on advertising in the race, according to data from AdImpact. Republican-aligned groups accounted for more than $3 million and Democratic allies spending at least $2 million.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, progressive Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas and Democratic Party Chair Ken Martin have made appearances supporting Behn.

New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined the virtual rally for Behn Monday night along with Gore. Ocasio-Cortez described talking to Behn about a week ago and credited her courage for running in what was once seen as a safe Republican seat.

“That kind of guts is what we need more of in this country,” she said. “And again, it’s not just about an ideology, but it is about a character, a kind of person that says we’re not going to do something because it’s easy, we’re going to do it because it’s the right thing to do.”

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