This Democratic electorate is perfect for Joe Biden
There are two data points in CNN’s new 2020 poll that have to make former Vice President Joe Biden and his presidential campaign feel very, very good.
1) Almost 6 in 10 Democrats (57%) said they wanted the “Democratic Party [to] nominate a presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump,” while just 35% said they preferred a candidate show “shared” their views on major issues. (Back in December, only 47% prioritized a nominee who could beat Trump.)
2) Almost 6 in 10 (58%) said they would rather a presidential nominee “advocate for policies that have a good chance of becoming law, even if the changes they make aren’t as big,” while just 36% said they would opt for a nominee who would “advocate for policies that would result in big changes, even if they have a lower chance of becoming law.”
If you believe that the fight in the Democratic race is, at the moment, between pragmatic, centrist solutions and radical change, then the desire of the electorate for a winner and its desire for more incremental change with the best chance of becoming law suggests that Biden is sitting pretty.
Which is, admittedly, at odds with the horserace findings in this same poll: Sen. Bernie Sanders 27%, Biden 24%, Sen. Elizabeth Warren 14%, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg 11%. That marks the first time in CNN polling on the 2020 Democratic race that Biden did not hold a solo lead.
So, what gives? Honest answer: I’m not totally sure. Educated guess: What the CNN poll shows is a statistical dead heat between Sanders and Biden.
But projecting forward — assuming the Democratic electorate stays this pragmatic — it appears as though the Biden message will ultimately resonate more strongly than the Sanders one.
The Point: With less than two weeks left before the first votes of the 2020 nomination fight, voters are still sending mixed messages. What else is new?
