Whoever can finally coin an effective economic message could win the White House
Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN
(CNN) — Voters keep telling pollsters that their economic insecurities are the biggest issue in the 2024 election. So, it’s a knock on both parties that none of their candidates have yet found a decisive way to address those fears.
But both nominees will make new attempts to convince Americans they can deliver prosperity in the next three days. Former President Donald Trump will try to make a case against Kamala Harris’ role in the Biden economy on Wednesday in North Carolina. The vice president will chase his jet fumes down to the critical swing state on Friday, with the first major policy speech of her campaign, which aides say will provide answers on how she will lower prices.
The US economy has recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic more strongly than those of many other developed nations. But for decades, many Americans have felt squeezed, and 21st century presidents have all struggled to deal with the political consequences of inequality fostered by globalization.
Trump, who found fertile political ground amid economic blight in 2016, has this year spent more time flinging insults, race baiting and whining about his personal grievances than rolling out detailed plans to help workers. His hyperbole — like warning of a looming Great Depression – lacks seriousness. And his nostalgic revisionism of his economic management during his first term ignores the reality that his major initiative — a huge tax cut — did far more to benefit the wealthy than working Americans.
President Joe Biden dedicated his domestic agenda to restoring economic fairness and sought to revive manufacturing and repair the country’s crumbling infrastructure. But his big spending plans helped fuel the inflation that has hurt so many Americans. And he often looked like he was chiding voters for not giving him credit for his legislative successes as they struggled through tough times.
Harris has so far spoken only in the broadest of terms about how she would bring down prices and convince Americans that an economy that is comparatively healthy is about to deliver for them. The vice president is riding a tide of euphoria in her party and has erased Biden’s polling deficit against Trump. But she still faces a treacherous road.
As the effective incumbent in this race, Harris is vulnerable to any sudden shifts in the economic outlook. Trump immediately proclaimed a “Kamala crash” after a one-day plunge in stock markets last week. He’s not been as vocal as stocks have recouped most of their gains since. But conflicting economic signals set the stage for a precarious few months for the vice president. On Tuesday alone, the duality in the economy that voters know so well was underscored by new data showing that the Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation, slowed in July. But at the same time, Home Depot warned consumers were growing bearish.
Voters looking for more clarity on the economy may start to get answers this week because the dynamics of the transformed campaign are forcing Trump and Harris to get specific. The Republican nominee’s camp is racing to tie its new opponent to Biden’s perceived failures before Harris gets a chance to define herself.
“Hard-working Americans are suffering because of the Harris-Biden Administration’s dangerously liberal policies,” Trump’s campaign said in a statement announcing his appearance in Asheville, North Carolina, for a major speech on the economy on Wednesday afternoon. “Prices are excruciatingly high, and the cost of living has soared — leaving those on a fixed-income, unsure of how they are going to afford a basic standard of living in the future.”
Harris is moving quickly to fill in uncertainty over how she’d run the economy from the Oval Office. The vice president has traveled frequently to support Biden-Harris administration policies in the last four years but has not yet put her personal touch on policy. She will be at the president’s side on Thursday in suburban Maryland for their first formal joint appearance since he left the race, where they will discuss the steps they are taking to lower prices for the American people. The next day, Harris will deliver a major speech in Raleigh on her economic plans, which her campaign said would address lowering costs for middle class families and focus on “corporate price-gouging.”
Trump keeps missing the mark
It’s not hard to conjure up simple campaign themes that might help Trump bounce back after being caught off guard by the Democratic switch from Biden to Harris.
Republican operatives are visibly frustrated that the former president hasn’t ditched his personal obsessions and behavior, which alienate critical suburban voters in battleground states, to focus on the economy, the border and global challenges.
“You’ve got to focus,” CNN political commentator Scott Jennings said Monday, channeling a message to Trump though an appearance with Anderson Cooper. “You’re not going to win the race fighting with the other campaign about crowd size and stuff that’s not really on the minds of most Americans. People are still in a sour mood about the country. People think the country is off track. They are still mad about food prices. They are still mad about the economic anxiety in their lives.”
Another Republican strategist, Brad Todd, told CNN’s Kasie Hunt Tuesday that “the problem is former President Donald Trump has to focus his message when he’s in front of the camera and he’s a big, big part of how the campaign communicates. He’s got to tighten it up and he’s got to focus it on what voters would get if Kamala Harris wins.”
Todd was echoing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who had this warning for Trump on Fox News on Monday: “Stop questioning the size of her crowds and start questioning her (positions).”
In a chummy two-hour chat with tech titan Elon Musk on Monday, Trump did strike some economic arguments on inflation and energy production. “The election’s coming up and the people want to hear about the economy and the fact that they can’t buy groceries,” the former president said. It was not long, however, before he was diving down a rabbit hole and boasting about his redesign of new Air Force One jets and marveling at the number of listeners to their live stream. Musk made more convincing arguments on the economy than Trump. And on the campaign trail, Trump’s vice presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, has kept a far tighter focus on the economy.
Harris offers empathy with a dose of populism
Harris’ three-week political honeymoon shows no sign of ending and it is likely to get a further boost next week when the Democratic National Convention takes place in Chicago. The event will be dedicated to building up Harris’ image and fleshing out her appeal to middle class Americans — especially on economic issues. And she will benefit from the efforts of her party’s two most gifted orators, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.
The 42nd and 44th presidents could be especially helpful. In 2012, Clinton delivered a spellbinding address that made clear arguments that Obama had struggled to effectively make himself as he ran for reelection. Obama – who was trying to balance a desire to take credit for an economic rebound after the Great Recession with concern that would anger voters still far from thrilled about the state of the economy – gratefully dubbed his Democratic predecessor “the secretary of explaining stuff.”
Democrats are encouraged by some anecdotal signs that Harris’ surge has begun to ease Democratic vulnerabilities over the economy. In a CNN poll published in early July, before Biden dropped out, the economy was easily the issue most important to voters. And 51% of them trusted Trump to handle the issue and only 32% chose Biden. But in a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll last week, Harris had narrowed the gap considerably, trailing the former president by only 3 points on the issue. A New York Times/Siena College poll over the weekend also showed that she has reduced the deficit to Trump on the economy in key swing states.
But with Trump seeking an opening to define her negatively — especially on the economy — Harris must act fast.
While her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is relishing laying into Trump — accusing him of crashing the economy by mismanaging the Covid-19 pandemic, for example — Harris is making strategic adjustments. She’s already infuriated Trump by adopting his scheme to end federal taxes on tips — a play by both candidates for service workers in the battleground of Nevada.
And she’s subtly shifting the tone.
“Look, while our economy is doing well by many measures, prices for everyday things like groceries are still too high. You know it, and I know it,” Harris said in Phoenix over the weekend, noting that as attorney general of California she had taken on price-fixing schemes. “When I am president, I will continue that work to bring down prices. I will take on big corporations that engage in illegal price gouging. I will take on corporate landlords that unfairly raise rents on working families. I will take on big pharma and cap the cost of prescription drugs for all Americans.
“All of this is to say, unlike Donald Trump, I will always put the middle-class and working families first.”
That empathy with a dash of populism could help Harris mitigate Trump’s edge on the election’s most critical issue — especially in the vital Blue Wall States of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. She hopes it will pave her way to the Oval Office.
The-CNN-Wire
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