World leaders heading to major summits are wary of Trump. China’s Xi sees an opportunity

Analysis by Simone McCarthy, CNN

Hong Kong (CNN) — As leaders from across the world gather for two major summits in South America in the coming days, the uncertainty brought by Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House is expected to loom large.

Many will be grappling with what Trump’s “America First” agenda will mean for the global economy and the grinding conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

China, perhaps more than most countries, will be bracing for fractious relations ahead with the United States. But for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the upcoming gatherings provide an opportunity in the wake of Trump’s election victory to advance Beijing’s own objectives: driving a wedge between the US and its allies and presenting China as an alternative, stable leader.

How well Beijing makes its case at the APEC summit of 21 Asia-Pacific economies in Peru this week, followed by a meeting of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies in Brazil next week could be critical to China weathering the anticipated coming storm.

In his first term, Trump unleashed a trade and tech war with China and reframed the rising power as an American rival – a path largely followed by his successor Joe Biden, who further irked Beijing by bringing US allies and partners along on his China policy.

And with Trump’s second term raising the threat of further heavy tariffs and uncertainty, Xi and his delegation will be carefully calibrating their diplomacy at the two meetings.

President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are among the leaders also expected to attend both summits, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the G20.

“It makes sense for Chinese officials to use these big events to try and shape some of the international narratives right now,” said Li Mingjiang, an associate professor of international relations at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University. “Since there’s not much time before January 2025.”

Driving the wedge

Trump has proposed hitting all Chinese imports to the US with upwards of 60% tariffs and could deepen Biden-era policy constraining Beijing’s access to sensitive high tech. He also appears to be looking to fill his cabinet with China hawks, asking Congressman Mike Waltz to be his national security adviser, according to CNN reporting, and Marco Rubio to join the administration as secretary of state.

Xi’s congratulatory message to Trump last week appeared to show some of Beijing’s concerns. The Chinese leader warned that the two countries “will both benefit from cooperation and lose from confrontation,” according to China’s Foreign Ministry.

Xi may look to underscore that message during a final meeting with Biden that senior US officials said would take place Saturday in Lima. Beijing would use such a meeting to signal that it wants communication and stability in the relationship, observers say.

But as questions loom over how tense US-China ties could become, Beijing sees good relations with a wide range of other countries – and unrestricted access to their markets – as key to protecting its economy. That’s especially as it grapples with slowing growth, weak consumer demand and high unemployment at home.

And in Beijing’s eyes, global uncertainty about Trump creates an opening for it to chip away at what, under Biden, had been increasing coordination between the US and its allies in trade, security and other areas to counter the perceived threat from China.

Many of the leaders that worked alongside Biden will be watching warily how Trump, known for his erratic and transactional brand of diplomacy, may alter their relations when he starts his term in January.

The president-elect has threatened 10% tariffs on goods imported to the US from all countries, including close partners. He’s called on US allies in Asia to pay more to host American troops – and said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that doesn’t meet spending guidelines on defense.

“China wants to signal that it’s not going to be very wise to completely side with the US – and to consider working with China as well,” said Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor of international affairs at the City University of Hong Kong.

Beijing has already taken steps to improve its relationships with America’s key allies and partners in recent months, for example opening visa-free entry to China for citizens of multiple European countries and resuming a trilateral summit with Japan and South Korea.

Xi and another close US partner, Indian leader Modi, met for their first formal bilateral meeting in five years in October, after reaching an agreement on military disengagement along their contested border – a significant step to ease tensions.

Earlier this month, Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged to leaders and executives at a trade expo that China would open its market further to create “great global opportunities.”

A hard sell?

Xi and his delegation are likely to continue to telegraph such messages to US partners during the summit meetings in Lima and Rio de Janeiro, while also looking to project China as a leading power that’s dedicated to global stability.

“For G20 and APEC, China’s message will be ‘There is major uncertainty ahead, but China is the certainty and will remain committed to peace and development,’” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.

Chinese leaders, however, will face an uphill struggle to win the trust of US partners across both Europe and Asia, observers say.

Regardless of any frictions with the future US president, those countries have watched with alarm as Xi has ramped up his aggression in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan, while backing Russian leader Vladimir Putin as he wages war on Ukraine.

Still, they may have no choice but to collaborate with China more, should Trump repeat decisions of his first term to retreat from organizations like the World Health Organization or international agreements like the Paris climate accord.

Such moves would also bolster Xi’s long-standing aim to reshape the international liberal order he sees as unfairly skewed toward the US – and pitch China as its alternative leader. His vision has so far found most support in the Global South, where China’s Belt and Road Initiative and other development efforts have already expanded Beijing’s clout.

“If America is withdrawing from the global system, there is a space for someone else to step in – and China is one of the very few countries who both have some capacity and some intention to fill in that gap,” said Liu in Hong Kong.

China’s capacity to do so, however, is linked to the strength of its economy – and how it copes with potential further pressure from the US, he added.

As such, Beijing may proceed with care both in its diplomacy in the days ahead and its broader international efforts, according to Sun in Washington.

“Beijing does worry about Trump’s wrath and what he could do to damage China’s interest on a bilateral level,” she said. “China will have to balance its advancement for global leadership with considerations of relations with the US, and to avoid poking Trump in the eye.”

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This story has been updated with additional reporting.