The 3 likeliest outcomes from Super Tuesday II

It’s only been a week since Super Tuesday, but the shape of the 2020 Democratic presidential race has been radically altered.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has surged into the delegate lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, boosted by an avalanche of endorsements from his former rivals including Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker. Sanders has spent the week on defense, insisting that he remains very much a relevant player in the race.

Which brings us to today, aka “Super Tuesday II.” All told, six states — Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington — will cast ballots. The big prize is Michigan, with 125 delegates at stake; both Biden and Sanders have spent time in the state, and Sanders has made plain that he needs the state.

“We’re working as hard as we can because Michigan is very, very significant in terms of the primary process,” Sanders told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” Sunday. “We hope to repeat the victory we had in 2016.”

That’s especially true since Biden is well positioned to win big in Mississippi and Missouri — and with Washington state looking competitive as well.

Below are the three most likely scenarios coming out of Super Tuesday, from less likely to most likely. (Nota bene: These are projections based on current polling. As last week showed, polling can often run behind where the public actually is.)

3. Sanders wins Michigan: Four years ago, all of the polling suggested that Hillary Clinton would edge Sanders out in Michigan. Clinton had all the establishment support. Everyone — including the Sanders people — expected her to win. And she lost.

Which means, in the immortal words of Kevin Garnett, anything is possible! The state — in terms of demographics — shapes up well for Sanders. In 2016, 7 in 10 voters in the primary were white and more than 1 in 3 were whites without a college degree, a group that has been one of the pillars of the Vermont senator’s support in this election and in 2016. The state is not, however, significantly Hispanic — just 3% in 2016 — which makes it more difficult for Sanders since Latinos have been a reliable voting bloc for him.

Still, surprises happen! And if this one comes to pass, the race will reset for a second time, with it looking like a potential delegate photo finish between Biden and Sanders.

2. Biden wins Michigan by single digits: A win is a win — and given Biden’s polling strength in Mississippi and Missouri — he would still likely be perfectly fine with this sort of outcome. But the narrower a Biden win in Michigan, the more ability Sanders has to make the case that even with the full weight of the party establishment behind him, Biden wasn’t able to put him away totally in the Wolverine State.

It would be a blow to Sanders’ campaign, no doubt, but maybe not one that makes it clear he simply has no viable path to the nomination. It would allow him to make the case that Biden’s surge is beginning to abate and, because of Sanders’ remarkable (and ongoing) fundraising as well as the loyalty of his core supporters, he still can win this thing particularly with other Midwestern states like Wisconsin and Ohio yet to vote.

1. Biden wins big In Michigan, Mississippi and Missouri (at least): Ever since he won the South Carolina primary on February 29, Biden has looked like an absolute juggernaut.

Polling in Michigan suggests that Biden is comfortably ahead of Sanders in a state where the Vermont senator beat Clinton in 2016. And Sanders’ decision to effectively pull out of Mississippi to focus more time on Michigan raises the likelihood that Biden could sweep all or the vast majority of delegates among what is expected to be a heavily African American electorate. There’s been little polling in Missouri, but what’s out there suggests another major Biden win.

Sweeping all three of those states by double digits, which seems likely at this point, would not only give Biden a delegate win for the day but also cement the idea that the race is his to lose at that point. But would Sanders leave the race? Color me skeptical.