Nation’s most competitive governor’s race tests the power of ticket-splitters in New Hampshire

By Simone Pathe, CNN

Manchester, New Hampshire (CNN) — The last time Kelly Ayotte was on the ballot with Donald Trump, she lost.

The former one-term Republican senator is giving it another go in New Hampshire this year, running in the most competitive governor’s race in the country.

But the shadow of the top of the ticket looms large, with some Republicans in the Granite State worrying how many Kamala Harris voters Ayotte can win over when Trump looks likely to lose here.

While Democrats attempt to nationalize the contest – attacking Ayotte on abortion and on Trump – Republicans are trying to localize it by zeroing in on Democratic nominee Joyce Craig’s past tenure as the mayor of Manchester, tying her to the city’s homelessness and drug problems.

“It’s not her fault, but it didn’t seem like she did anything to help,” Ray Lawrence, 73, said of Craig while finishing lunch on a recent drizzly Friday here in New Hampshire’s largest city. He likes Ayotte’s record as a senator and former state attorney general, and he’s also voting for Trump.

Around the corner on Manchester’s main drag, Claudette Laroche, 71, of Hooksett had a four-word response for why she’s backing Craig: “She’s advocating for women.”

With political opinions as hardened as they are, the neck-and-neck race to succeed retiring Republican Gov. Chris Sununu will test the endurance of ticket-splitting in a state that’s more prone to it than most but that’s also been trending bluer at the federal level. Hillary Clinton carried New Hampshire by less than half a point in 2016; Joe Biden won it by 7 points four years later.

“If voters decide they’re voting against Trump, I don’t see evidence large numbers of them will draw a distinction between other Republicans and Trump,” said former state GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen, an Ayotte supporter and self-described “Never Trump Republican.”

“There is plenty of evidence that voters know how to split their ticket, but this is an open-seat race,” he added, noting that Ayotte – who was last elected in 2010 – doesn’t have the same winning record as Sununu, who won four terms, including two while on the ballot with Trump.

Abortion motivates Democratic voters

In her bid for reelection in 2016, Ayotte withdrew her backing for Trump after the emergence of the “Access Hollywood” tape a month before the election. The decision was widely thought to have contributed to her narrow loss to Democrat Maggie Hassan because it depressed support for her among Trump’s base.

This year, she’s backing the former president.

“As you know, we had our differences in ’16,” Ayotte said in an interview with WMUR this spring while campaigning for the GOP nomination. “But I think, as we look at where we are as a country right now, there’s no question that he’s the right choice.”

Ayotte’s evolution on Trump has been a source of Democratic attacks – part of a broader narrative they’re trying to paint about her credibility.

“Now that Kelly Ayotte’s running for a third time, she’ll say anything to win,” the narrator in a New Hampshire Democratic Party ad says over footage of her 2016 comments about the former president.

Democrats are making the same argument about Ayotte’s stance on abortion, pointing to certain votes in the Senate, including several to defund Planned Parenthood, and her service as a guide or “sherpa” through the Senate confirmation process for Neil Gorsuch, one of the Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.

“Too much history with Kelly Ayotte,” 40-year-old Arthur Lahey of Manchester said while walking down Elm Street.

Ayotte, who has previously called herself “pro-life,” is stressing that she will defend the law in New Hampshire, where abortion remains legal up to 24 weeks.

“I’m not going to change this law, and I’d be happy to use the veto pen if someone sends me a law that’s more restrictive on their rights,” Ayotte says in one ad.

“We all know what they’re doing,” she says in another spot responding to her Democratic opponents’ attacks. “Politicizing abortion to win votes. It’s wrong, and it’s not New Hampshire.”

Those assertions don’t ring true to Bill Lonergan, 62, who was out in Manchester on a recent Friday during a pause in the rain. “I’m a little nervous about Ayotte on abortion,” he said, holding his young granddaughter. “I don’t trust her,” he added, arguing that her position on not signing abortion restrictions sounded too carefully worded to be genuine.

Ayotte’s campaign did not return CNN’s requests for comment.

GOP pushes law and order

At the Puritan Backroom restaurant – a Manchester institution owned by Democratic US Rep. Chris Pappas’ family – two sisters at the bar, both Trump supporters, said they were voting for Ayotte.

Because “she’s a conservative,” said 59-year-old Susan Berntsen, who lamented Craig’s governance of Manchester, which now has a Republican mayor.

Homelessness and begging on the street were out of control, she and her sister said, making outdoor dining untenable.

“I just can’t trust her,” Berntsen said, throwing at Craig the same phrase Democrats have used against Ayotte.

“Now, Kelly Ayotte is not a favorite either,” she added. “We are pro-Trump people, and she came out against him” last time, Bernsten said, alluding to Ayotte’s 2016 Senate race. “However, we now have to think about what’s best for the state.”

Ayotte’s ads blame Craig for exacerbating the city’s homelessness “crisis” – showing footage of an encampment dubbed by critics as “Craigville.” And they’ve accused her of trying to raise the city’s taxes six times. In a state known for not having an income tax, Republicans are trying to capitalize on fears of the state “becoming Massachusetts,” attempting to tie Craig to the commonwealth’s Democratic governor, Maura Healey.

Under Craig, Manchester aldermen approved budgets that overrode the city’s tax cap – which limits the amount of money that can be raised from property taxes – although that was not part of the mayor’s own budget proposals. Craig’s campaign contends that under her tenure, city spending increased to pay for services because of fewer resources from the state and that property taxes overall went down. She has said that as governor she would veto any effort to impose a sales or income tax but that she does support the tax on dividends, which she argues is supposed to affect the wealthiest residents.

In an interview in her Manchester campaign office, Craig touted her efforts to get people off the streets – including opening the first city-funded shelter – and to build affordable housing, while pointing to Ayotte’s service on the board of private equity giant Blackstone. A recent ad from Craig tries to paint a sunnier vision of Manchester, with Democratic former Gov. John Lynch lauding advanced manufacturing jobs there.

Some Manchester voters balked at the GOP ads casting their city in a negative light, and Ayotte’s campaign even had to take down an ad last month that inaccurately suggested a notorious murder had happened while Craig was mayor.

But Cullen, the former GOP chairman, said the broader hits on Manchester’s management may be effective since most state voters don’t live there. “It’s one of those reasons why mayors have a hard time moving up,” he said.

Craig, however, benefits from support from the national party as well as a robust Democratic coordinated campaign in the state, whereas the lack of a competitive presidential race means Ayotte’s operation rests mostly on her. She has the backing of the Republican Governors Association, which has recently suggested it won’t spend more in North Carolina – long seen as the only other highly competitive gubernatorial election of the cycle – in the wake of a CNN report about the GOP nominee’s inflammatory comments.

“RGA is fully committed to keeping New Hampshire in Republican hands to ensure New Hampshire’s path to success continues, and there’s no one better than Kelly Ayotte to do just that,” RGA spokeswoman Courtney Alexander said in a statement. “Joyce Craig failed Manchester and would do the same to the entire Granite State if given the opportunity.”

A Granite State poll from the University of New Hampshire released earlier this month found no clear leader between Ayotte and Craig.

But if Harris wins New Hampshire, the biggest question is how wide of a margin would Ayotte need to overcome to keep the governorship in party hands.

If it’s in the low single digits, Cullen thinks Ayotte can prevail.

Mike Dennehy, a New Hampshire Republican strategist, agreed: “You can peel off a couple percent. Maybe 3 or at most 4.”

Beyond that, he said, it’s hard.

“I think if Trump loses by 6 to 8 points, it’s likely Democrats will win the corner office. No doubt in my mind.”

CNN’s Steve Contorno contributed to this report.

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