The 5 most likely scenarios in the Nevada caucuses

The third vote of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary is set for Saturday afternoon, when Nevadans head to caucus sites around the state.

So who will win? And who, well, won’t?

Below, the five most likely scenarios — with a big caveat: There is very limited quality polling in Nevada, raising the unpredictability quotient.

5. Joe Biden finishes second: Look, it could happen.

The makeup of the Nevada electorate — much less white, much more Hispanic — works in Biden’s favor. And by his admittedly low standards, Biden put together a solid performance in Wednesday night’s debate.

The key for the former vice president is to get the stench of defeat and hopelessness off as soon as possible. A surprise second in Nevada would absolutely do that — and position him for a week of momentum heading into the South Carolina primary next weekend.

4. Biden takes third (or lower): The former vice president’s firewall state is South Carolina, which votes on February 29. But to have a chance at winning there in eight days’ time, Biden probably needs a top two showing in Nevada — especially after finishing fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire.

Most polling shows Biden in second behind Bernie Sanders but, if the first two voting states are any indication, he is likely to underperform those numbers somewhat, especially without the influential Culinary Workers Union actively working for him.

If Biden dips to third or lower in Nevada, he’ll continue on for another week to South Carolina. But it’s hard to see how he would maintain his already narrowing lead in the state. And a loss in South Carolina would effectively end his campaign.

3. Elizabeth Warren finishes second: There’s no question that the senator from Massachusetts had the best debate of her race on Wednesday night. The only question is whether that strong showing will translate into an over-performance in Nevada.

I’m betting it will. Every poll conducted in the state showed a big chunk of voters still haven’t made up their minds on a candidate, and it’s easy to see how Warren would claim those voters in much the same way Amy Klobuchar did in New Hampshire following her own debate star turn.

One thing to watch with Warren: The stronger Sanders runs, the harder it is for her to win enough votes to pull a surprise. Generally speaking, the two are pulling from the same bloc of liberal voters, which could hold down the vote totals of Warren or Sanders, or both, a little bit.

2. Pete Buttigieg finishes second: An underrated storyline in the race to date is that the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor has done better than polls suggested he would in both Iowa (where he won the delegate count) and New Hampshire (where he lost very narrowly to Sanders).

What that suggests is that a) Buttigieg is a strong closer with undecided voters and b) his campaign knows how to identify supporters and turn them out.

The only major issue for Buttigieg is that he continues to struggle somewhat with nonwhite voters and, unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, there will be lots of Latinos in the Nevada caucuses tomorrow.

1. Sanders wins: The polling data that is out there suggests that the senator from Vermont should not only win, but win convincingly.

He was already in solid shape in Nevada prior to his near-win in the Iowa caucuses and his real win in the New Hampshire primary.

But the momentum built up from those previous two states coupled with Sanders’ committed supporters and organizational prowess make him the clear favorite here.