Struggle for Senate control comes down to handful of tight races

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By Maeve Reston and Stephen Collinson, CNN

The struggle for the Senate is coming down to a handful of knife edge races while Republicans are making slower than expected progress toward their goal of winning the House of Representatives.

A few thousand votes separate Republicans and Democrats in the decisive Senate races. Democrat John Fetterman has a small lead in Pennsylvania, his party’s best hope to pick up a seat currently held by Republicans. In Georgia, Republican nominee Herschel Walker, a former college football icon, is narrowly ahead of Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Neither candidate is above the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff next month. In another perennially close state, Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, who is running for a third term, is up on Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes.

Counting is also under way in in Arizona and Nevada, where Democratic incumbents are trying to hold onto their seats. The results in many races will come down to whether the outstanding vote is in Republican or Democratic counties, and it may be many hours or days before the final destiny of the Senate is clear.

Republicans only need a net gain of one seat to win the Senate majority. But they fell short in New Hampshire and Colorado, where Democratic Sens. Maggie Hassan and Michael Bennet will win reelection, CNN projects.

Democrats also fell short in two states that had proven surprisingly competitive heading into Election Day. Republicans will hold onto North Carolina and Ohio, CNN projects, denying Democrats opportunities to pick up seats that could have mitigated any future losses.

Republicans had hoped to sweep a trio of Virginia House districts on their way to a landslide in the House. They will pick up one key win in a bellwether district in the commonwealth. CNN projects Republican Jen Kiggans will defeat Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, the only member of the select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, insurrection who was facing a competitive general election.

Luria had put the fight to save American democracy at the center of her closing message but she fell short in a district that got slightly better for Republicans in redistricting. The race was among the most closely watched in the country — viewed as an early indicator of Republican strength on Tuesday night.

But in another key Virginia district, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger will hold on to her seat, CNN projects, in a district that became bluer in redistricting.

In Georgia, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp will defeat Democrat Stacey Abrams, CNN projects, in their rematch. Kemp had been targeted by Trump during the primary because he refused to overturn the 2020 presidential results in Georgia. But Kemp largely ignored those attacks and ran on his record as a conservative who had helped the state’s economy recover after the Covid-19 pandemic. His strategy may offer a template for other Republicans who have crossed Trump.

In Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race, one of the most prominent pro-Trump election deniers, Republican Doug Mastriano, will fall to rising star Democrat Josh Shapiro, CNN projects.

In Arizona, where all four GOP nominees at the top of the ticket have echoed Trump’s lies about the 2020 election, right-wing media seized on tabulator problems in Maricopa County to raise the idea of fraud — despite assurances to the contrary from county officials — in a clear echo of some conservatives’ repeated attempts to cast doubt on Maricopa’s results in 2020.

Arizona is a key battleground this year for governor and Senate and likely will be again for president in 2024, sparking warnings that the GOP’s embrace of Trump’s election falsehoods and conspiracy theories could put democracy at risk if they were to sweep to power.

Charlie Kirk, the founder and president of right-wing group Turning Point USA, tweeted a false claim about two-hour wait times in the county, which was the site of repeated partisan “audits” in 2020. A Maricopa County judge on Tuesday night denied a bid by Republicans to extend polling hours by three hours, saying there was no evidence that any voters were precluded from exercising their right to vote.

Two early calls in Florida underscored GOP strength in the state. Sen. Marco Rubio will be reelected, CNN projects, defeating Democratic Rep. Val Demings. And Gov. Ron DeSantis, a potential challenger to ex-President Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary in 2024, will win reelection in a victory that will supercharge his national ambitions.

And in Alabama, Republican Katie Britt, who was backed by Trump, will easily win the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Richard Shelby, becoming the first elected female senator from the state. In another history-making race, CNN projects that Arkansas Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump’s former White House press secretary, will become the state’s first female governor, a post that was once held by her father, former GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee.

History was also made in blue states. In Massachusetts, Maura Healey will become the state’s first elected female governor and the nation’s first out lesbian governor, CNN projects. And Democrat Wes Moore will serve as Maryland’s first Black governor.

Early exit polls revealed a nation in the grip of economic pessimism. Roughly three-quarters of voters felt negatively about the economy with about 4 in 10 deeming it downright poor, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research. A third of the electorate said inflation was the most important issue to their vote while about 27% cited abortion — the issue Democrats hoped could give them a boost after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

The frustration with Washington’s inability to significantly lower costs had left Democrats on shaky ground even in reliably blue states like California, Oregon and New York heading into Election Day. The latter two feature surprisingly competitive gubernatorial contests. And there are more than enough contested House seats in those states alone for Republicans to win the House majority.

Republicans have already promised to launch investigations into the administration and cripple its agenda if they win the House majority, and many of their nominees have echoed Trump’s election falsehoods, leading to Biden’s repeated warnings about threats to democracy.

The midterms will serve as a critical proving ground for Trump, who has cast a long shadow over the Republican Party as he’s used appearances for the nominees he elevated to tease his likely presidential run in 2024.

Appearing in Ohio on Monday night for Vance, the former president said he’d be making a big announcement at his Mar-a-Lago resort on November 15. CNN had previously reported his aides were eyeing the third week of November for a campaign launch — timing that would allow Trump to take credit for GOP successes in the midterms.

Ahead of a potential rematch with Trump, Biden’s dragging approval ratings have made him an unwelcome presence on the campaign trail in swing states. He spent election eve rallying in Maryland for Moore and in New York several days earlier for Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Republican momentum in the closing stretch of the campaign — especially in the race for the House — had put the White House on notice about the potential coming frustrations of governing in a divided Washington. The GOP has already promised relentless investigations and hearings focusing on the Justice Department, the administration’s border policies, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the president’s son, Hunter Biden. In an exclusive interview with CNN on Sunday, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy left the door open to beginning impeachment proceedings against the president.

A divided government in Washington could allow Biden to wield his presidential veto to frustrate Republican plans of prolonging Trump-era tax cuts and any attempt to pass a national ban on abortion. But it could also trigger fiscal showdowns and the threats of government shutdowns. A clash could also be looming over raising the debt ceiling.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

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