CNN Poll: Harris improves on Biden’s performance against Trump in early look at new matchup

By Ariel Edwards-Levy and Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

(CNN) — The likely 2024 presidential election campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump begins with no clear leader, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after President Joe Biden ended his bid for reelection.

Trump holds 49% support among registered voters nationwide to Harris’ 46%, a finding within the poll’s margin of sampling error. That’s a closer contest than earlier CNN polling this year had found on the matchup between Biden and Trump.

The survey finds voters widely supportive of both Biden’s decision to step aside and his choice to remain in office through the end of his term. Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are broadly enthusiastic about Harris and willing to coalesce around her as the new presumptive nominee, even as they remain deeply divided on whether Biden’s Democratic successor should seek to continue his policies or chart a new course.

The poll, conducted online July 22 and 23, surveyed registered voters who had previously participated in CNN surveys in April or June, both of which found Trump leading Biden by 6 points in a head-to-head matchup. Checking back in with the same people means that shifts in preferences are more likely to reflect real changes over time and not just statistical noise.

And the new poll finds some critical movement in these early days of a Harris-Trump race.

Harris hangs on to 95% of those who earlier said they supported Biden, while Trump retains the support of a slightly smaller 92% of his previous backers. Those who previously said they would support neither Biden nor Trump in a two-way matchup now split 30% for Harris and 27% for Trump, with the rest saying they’d vote for someone else or opt out of this year’s election.

Half of those who back Harris in the new poll (50%) say their vote is more in support of her than against Trump. That’s a dramatic shift compared with the Trump-focused dynamic of the Biden-Trump race. Among Biden’s supporters in CNN’s June poll, just 37% said their vote was mainly to express support for the president.

About three-quarters of Trump’s supporters (74%) say their vote is to express support for him rather than opposition to Harris. That’s an increase in affirmative support for him compared with the June CNN poll (66%), which came before an assassination attempt on Trump’s life and the Republican National Convention at which the former president formally accepted his party’s nomination. The poll finds Trump’s favorability rating ticking up to 43%, higher than it’s been since 2020 in CNN polling.

The poll also suggests that Trump’s support among his strongest groups is holding steady even as his opponent changes: 67% of White voters without degrees support him over Harris, near-identical to his support against Biden (66%). He continues to hold the support of a majority of men (53% versus Harris, it was 54% against Biden). And he maintains the support of about 9 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (90% vs. Harris, 89% against Biden).

The shift toward affirmative support for Harris among her backers comes from groups that typically break for Democrats but had been seen as trouble spots for the Biden campaign. Among Harris supporters younger than 45, 43% say their vote is more in support of her than against Trump, up from 28% of Biden voters in that age group who felt the same way about the president in June. Among voters of color who back Harris, 57% say their vote is for her more than against Trump, compared with 48% among Biden voters of color in June. And 54% of women backing Harris say their vote is to support her, compared with 43% of women backing Biden who said the same in June.

Those same groups account at least in part for Harris’ polling gains over Biden among those who were recontacted for this survey.

Among voters under 35, 49% said in April or June that they would support Trump and 42% Biden, but now, 47% support Harris to 43% for Trump. The same Black voters who split 70% for Biden to 23% for Trump in previous polling now break 78% for Harris to 15% for Trump. Among Hispanic voters, Biden trailed Trump in earlier polling 50% to 41%; those same voters now split about evenly, 47% Harris to 45% for Trump. Women split 46% Biden to 46% Trump in earlier polling, but now break 50% Harris to 45% Trump.

Independent voters who broke 47% Trump to 37% Biden in prior polls now split 46% Trump to 43% Harris. That narrowed gap is driven at least partly by increased Harris support among independents who lean toward the Democratic Party. While 81% of voters in that group supported Biden in April or June, 90% of them now back Harris.

Widespread Democratic consensus around Harris

The poll was conducted as Democratic politicians and delegates rapidly rallied around Harris as the party’s presumptive nominee in the days following Biden’s decision to exit the race. About three-quarters of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (76%) say the Democratic Party should nominate Harris as its candidate for president, with only about 6% expressing support for any other specific person as the nominee.

Democratic-aligned voters express broadly positive views of Harris, with three-quarters or more saying that she is someone they’d be proud to have as president (86%), agrees with them on the issues that matter most (84%), represents the future of the Democratic Party (83%), will unite the country and not divide it (77%) and has a good chance of beating Trump (75%).

In a sign of the current intraparty unity around Harris, there are relatively few sharp demographic divides in Democratic-aligned voters’ assessments. Ideological divisions within the Democratic Party are also relatively muted, with both 88% of self-described liberals and 81% of self-described moderates or conservatives saying that they think Harris agrees with them on the most important issues.

But Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are closely split over whether the next nominee should continue Biden’s policies (53%) or take the country in a new direction (47%). Desire for a new direction is largely concentrated among younger voters and voters of color.

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, voters older than 65 (72%), White voters (62%) and those with college degrees (58%) largely want the party’s next nominee to follow in Biden’s footsteps. Six in 10 voters of color and voters younger than 45 say they’re looking for a new direction on policy.

By contrast, there’s little ideological divide on this question, with similar shares of self-described liberals (55%) and moderates or conservatives (51%) hoping to see the next nominee continue with Biden’s policies.

Democratic-aligned voters’ priorities for a potential Harris running mate suggest a focus on electability: Four in 10 say it’s extremely important that, if nominated, she choose someone with proven appeal to swing voters. That’s in contrast to under 3 in 10 who say it’s extremely important that her running mate bring ideological balance to the ticket (28%) or has experience as an executive in government (25%).

Only 11% say it’s extremely important she pick a male running mate, with more than half saying that isn’t at all an important factor.

The poll suggests Republican and Republican-leaning voters have also coalesced around Trump in the tumultuous weeks since the June 27 CNN presidential debate. Nearly 9 in 10 (88%) now say that the Republicans have a better chance to win with Trump at the top of the ticket than without him, the highest share to say so in any CNN poll on this question dating back to 2015.

Nearly 9 in 10 registered voters overall (87%) say they approve of Biden’s decision to end his campaign for reelection, including more than 8 in 10 across parties (90% of Democrats, 88% of independents and 85% of Republicans approve). And 70% – including majorities across party lines – say that he should remain in office as president through the end of his term in January, while 29% say he ought to resign and let Harris take over.

Asked how they feel about Biden stepping aside, 58% of voters nationwide say they feel relieved, 37% are hopeful, 28% say they were surprised and 20% are worried. Smaller shares say they felt disappointed (13%) or angry (4%).

Black voters are somewhat less likely than voters overall to approve of Biden’s decision (78% approve) and more likely to say they were surprised (49%) or feel disappointed about his choice (27%).

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 54% say they feel hopeful, while 29% are worried. Just 2% of Democratic-aligned voters say they feel angry.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from July 22-23 among a random national sample of 1,631 registered voters who participated in CNN polls in April or June and were originally drawn from a probability-based panel. Surveys were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. More than 80% of registered voters across the two initial surveys participated in the recontact survey, and analysis showed no meaningful difference in demographic characteristics or political views between those who participated and those who did not. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.

CNN’s Edward Wu and Dana Elobaid contributed to this report.

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