Why experts are skeptical of Elon Musk’s lofty pro-Trump predictions based on early vote data

Analysis by Marshall Cohen and Ethan Cohen, CNN

(CNN) — Tech billionaire Elon Musk has issued a series of political predictions this week, based on strong Republican showings in early voting turnout data, that former President Donald Trump is “trending toward a crushing victory” in Pennsylvania and that Vice President Kamala Harris should even be “worried about losing Virginia.”

Musk’s predictions are based on publicly available analysis of ballots returned so far in pre-election voting, which won’t be tallied until Election Day. But voting experts say that because of gaps in the data, this isn’t a statistically sound method to game out election winners – and could sow confusion and doubts about the eventual results when ballots are counted.

“Based on all credible data, this race is going to be extremely close,” said David Becker, an expert on voting procedures who runs the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research. “No rational person should be surprised if either candidate wins.”

This isn’t a Musk-only phenomenon. Partisans from both sides routinely cite early voting data to promote their candidates and express optimism or try to juice turnout based on supposedly weak numbers. Social media sites are flooded with prognostications from Democratic consultants, right-wing pundits, journalists and self-styled voting experts.

Musk, the richest man in the world, endorsed Trump and has given $118 million to his own pro-Trump super PAC. He also has a long history of promoting false and misleading information about elections.

Some experts worry that Musk’s grandiose predictions of a “crushing” Trump win in Pennsylvania – where polls are tight – and other states could prime his legions of diehard followers to question the legitimacy of the results if Trump loses. Other pro-Trump figures and outlets have pushed similar narratives about the inevitability of a Trump victory.

Like many political observers, including at CNN, Musk has noticed the better-than-2020 GOP performance in early voting in North Carolina, Nevada and other key states. But Musk has gone farther into a mathematically unsupported space to claim the data is paving the way for Trump blowouts in swing states and might even put blue states like New Jersey and Virginia in play.

Early voting data only describes people who vote ahead of Election Day – it doesn’t provide insights into the voting intentions of tens of millions of voters who will go to the polls next Tuesday itself.

It also doesn’t tell us who people are voting for. At best, it can provide snippets of information like party registration, age and race.

“Early voting totals don’t tell us anything about who’s winning, and people should be extremely wary of claims that one side, or the other, is pulling away with this race,” Becker said. “We don’t know if these are people who would’ve voted anyway on Election Day or if they are new voters. We don’t know if this is a net plus for either side.”

A spokesman for Musk’s super PAC declined to comment.

While Musk posted his predictions to his X platform, Trump was stoking baseless fears of widespread voter fraud in Pennsylvania. Trump seized on a real incident of potential voter registration fraud to inaccurately claim that thousands of “fake ballots” were being cast.

Comparisons to 2020

Musk’s specific prediction that Trump will win Pennsylvania in a landslide is based on a comparison of current 2024 vote-by-mail turnout to turnout levels from this point in the 2020 race. Musk’s post on X has been viewed more than 54 million times as of Wednesday morning.

It’s true that turnout among registered Republicans isn’t as far behind the Democrats this year as it was in 2020, but experts say it’s irresponsible to make lofty predictions of victory based on this single datapoint.

Registered Republicans make up about 32% of the early vote in Pennsylvania so far, up from 21% at this point in 2020. Democrats made up 68% of the preelection vote at this point in 2020; so far this year they account for 58%. This data comes from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups.

The improved GOP position in early voting that Musk highlighted is happening in other states as well. In North Carolina, Republicans account for about 34% of the preelection vote, nearly 4 percentage points higher than at this point in 2020. And in Arizona, Republicans make up 42% of the vote, up more than 5 percentage points from this time in 2020.

“This is the braggadocio of a partisan who is claiming a lot of credit, but people need to take it with a really big grain of salt,” veteran GOP election lawyer Ben Ginsberg said. “He’s a partisan wishing for a result at a stage in the process where you just can’t know.”

Ginsberg, a CNN contributor, said the “irresponsibility on both sides of the aisle” around early voting turnout data certainly “feeds” potential post-election distrust in the results.

Trump attacked mail-in voting almost every day during the 2020 campaign, which was conducted amid the Covid-19 pandemic. This time around, Trump and the Republican National Committee have tailed their messaging to encourage supporters to vote-by-mail, even as Trump continues to question the integrity of the overall system.

A large chunk of voters also aren’t affiliated with either party, and it’s unknown how they’ll break for Trump and Harris. Not all registered Republicans will vote for Trump, and not all registered Democrats will back Harris.

“Musk either doesn’t understand this, which is good reason to ignore his commentary,” Isaac Saul, who writes a nonpartisan political newsletter, tweeted on Tuesday. “Or he does understand and he is ignoring it.”

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