Why the Iowa caucuses could be a disaster

No one knows who is going to win the Iowa caucuses in 17 days’ time.

But here’s something to think about: What if more than one candidate wins?

WHAT???? you ask. How can that be? (Cue “The Outsider” trailer.)

The answer: Unlike in past caucuses, when the Iowa Democratic Party released only the final delegate counts for each candidate, this year the party will be releasing two other numbers, too:

1. The raw votes in each precinct before the supporters of the nonviable candidates (those with less than 15% at each caucus site) are asked to choose someone else.

2. The final raw votes after all the backers of the nonviable candidates have decided on someone new (or decided not to pick someone new).

So instead of one number, there will be three. Why? Because in 2016, Bernie Sanders called on the state party to release the raw vote totals after Hillary Clinton was declared the winner because she had edged out the senator from Vermont in total delegates. (Clinton won 700.59 delegate equivalents to Sanders’ 696.82.)

The Associated Press announced this week that it will declare a winner based on the state delegate totals — as has always been the case.

But what about the campaigns? The conventional wisdom has been that there are three tickets out of Iowa — for the top three finishers. But which top three? Most delegates? Most raw votes? Some combo?

It’s of course possible that all of this hand-wringing is for nothing. The results — of both the raw votes and the delegate counts — may be straightforward and without any sort of confusion.

All the polling in Iowa, however, suggests this thing is going to be very close among the top four (or even five if you add Minnesota’s Sen. Amy Klobuchar in there.) And if that happens, well, look out.

The Point: If you thought Iowa’s caucus results (and what they mean) were confusing before, just wait.

Monday:

• Russians hack energy company that played major role in Trump Ukraine scandal
• ‘It is stomach-churning’: Progressives’ dread rises as Warren and Sanders collide

Tuesday:

• Yovanovitch calls for investigation into ‘disturbing’ surveillance as ex-diplomats outraged over her treatment
• ISIS carried out attacks on Iraq-Syria border posts after US suspended operations

Wednesday:

• Exclusive: Warren accused Sanders in tense post-debate exchange of calling her a ‘liar’ on national TV
• Senate impeachment trial rules: No phones and no talking for senators
• Trump confirms July 4 fireworks at Mt. Rushmore, brushing aside environmental concerns

Thursday:

• US troops were injured in Iran missile attack despite Pentagon initially saying there were no casualties
• DHS has requested Pentagon assistance to build 270 miles of border wall
• Pompeo stonewalls as evidence emerges of possible surveillance of ex-Ukraine ambassador

Friday:

• Senators prepare for contentious Tuesday session that could stretch hours and could go behind closed doors
• Trump adds Ken Starr and Alan Dershowitz to impeachment defense team
• Lewinsky offers colorful remark in apparent response to Starr joining Trump defense team

And that was the week in 13 headlines.