House leadership strategy at risk of collapsing as Pelosi presses for infrastructure vote

CNN

By Clare Foran, Manu Raju and Annie Grayer, CNN

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plan to pass a $1.9 trillion economic package and a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, two pillars of President Biden’s agenda, is at risk of collapsing as leaders struggle to unify the progressive and moderate wings of the party, a dynamic that has consumed Democrats for the past several months.

After previously expressing confidence that both bills will pass on Friday, Pelosi indicated in the afternoon that they would just move the infrastructure bill amid push back from moderates that the $1.9 trillion bill needs an official cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, a process that could take about two weeks.

But progressives are now warning that they will sink the infrastructure bill if it moves ahead. Progressives have long made clear that both bills must move in tandem, and they are saying that if the $1.9 trillion dollar bill is delayed then the infrastructure bill should be voted on at the same time.

The episode could mark yet another embarrassing setback for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team. The party has been struggling for months to unite its moderate and progressive wings to enact the central pillars of the President’s agenda, but those efforts have repeatedly stalled out, delivering a series of blows to congressional Democrats and the White House.

The party has already had to punt on voting on the infrastructure bill twice in two months due to a separate set of demands from progressives. Biden has gotten personally involved, visiting the Hill twice to rally Democrats, and working the phones with moderates this week. That has still not resolved the impasse.

As frustration over the holdup intensifies, House leadership is pressing ahead with a plan to vote on a separate infrastructure bill and the rule governing debate for the social spending bill. But it’s not clear that Democrats have the votes.

Pelosi announced the plan in a letter to House Democrats on Friday afternoon, saying, “We will bring to the Floor the BIF and a rule for consideration of the Build Back Better Act.” BIF refers to the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Frustration grows

Some House Democrats are angry at the handful of moderates holding up action over demands that the $1.9 trillion bill get a cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, a process that could take weeks.

“Not one of my constituents cares about the CBO,” said one member.

“Everyone is anxious to get this done,” another member said. “There’s growing frustration that the Blue Dogs keep moving the goal post. Every time we get close, they come up with a new demand.” The Blue Dog Coalition is a group of centrist House Democrats.

Progressive members are also not happy with the new plan being pushed by leadership of letting infrastructure pass without the social spending bill, multiple sources told CNN.

“They would lose at least 20 votes of Pramila, squad and core progressives for BIF if they chose that route. It won’t pass,” one progressive told CNN, referring to Congressional Progressive Chair Pramila Jayapal and other members of the caucus and the bipartisan infrastructure bill, which is frequently referred to as BIF.

Moderate demands stall push for votes

Five moderates, including Golden, signed onto a letter this week calling for a CBO score, before floor consideration of the Build Back Better Act.

CBO scores of legislation provide an estimate of the effects the policies could have on revenue and spending. Moderates, many of whom have expressed concerns over the overall cost of the bill, argue it is important to have that information and a full picture of the potential impact of the sweeping social safety net plan before holding a vote.

But it could take some time to prepare such a cost estimate. In the meantime, Democratic leadership is relying on a White House analysis saying the bill is fully paid for, based in part on the non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation.

House Budget Chairman John Yarmuth, a Democrat from Kentucky, told CNN he expected a CBO score to take about 10-14 days, and wouldn’t be done until the week before Thanksgiving. Some think it could slip until the week of Thanksgiving, though preliminary estimates could be done earlier.

Schrader, who signed onto the letter calling for a CBO score, left Pelosi’s office and told CNN “we have no resolution that I know” when asked if he is ready to vote on Build Back Better.

In one sign of progress for leadership, after meeting in Pelosi’s office, Democratic Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux of Georgia tweeted that she is not against voting for the social spending bill and that the CBO score is not a red line for her.

“There are a lot of rumors swirling. Let me be clear — this bill is paid for and it has a number of my priorities in it. If it comes to the Floor today — I will support the Build Back Better Act,” she said.

Biden calls for votes as some obstacles have been resolved

Biden on Friday called on the House to pass both bills “right now.”

“I’m asking every House member, member of the House of Representatives to vote yes on both these bills right now,” he said. “Send the infrastructure bill to my desk, send the Build Back Better bill to the Senate.”

The eleventh-hour holdup comes as Democratic leaders have been working around the clock to resolve other key sticking points and have made progress on other agenda items.

Democratic sources say that negotiations over immigration provisions have been resolved — and the last remaining hurdle to passing a bill is the demand by five moderates that they get a CBO score before a vote.

In a sign that a deal is getting closer, House Democrats have also resolved another sticking point: How to deal with state and local tax deductions, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. Democrats from the Northeast and West Coast have been pushing to loosen the caps imposed by the 2017 tax law.

Under the new SALT deal, deductions would be capped at $80,000 per year over a nine-year time span, according to Rep. Tom Malinowski, who helped cut the deal.

Before this week, demands from progressives had taken center stage in the push to pass the bills in the House. Progressives have demanded that both the social safety net plan and the infrastructure bill move in tandem.

This story and headline have been updated with additional developments Friday.

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