Analysis: El Paso’s potential 2024 electorate is getting older and more male
by Robert Moore
October 22, 2024
El Paso’s potential voting pool for the 2024 election is slightly older and more male than the previous two presidential elections, an El Paso Matters analysis of county voter data shows.
El Paso County has more than 522,000 registered voters who can cast ballots for the Nov. 5 election, a 7% increase over the number of registered voters in 2020. Most of the registration growth is among voters 45 and older, according to the El Paso Matters analysis.
The number of registered voters under age 30 grew by 4% between 2020 and 2024, while the number of registered voters aged 65 and older grew by 15%. The most sluggish growth was among middle-aged voters, with the number of registered voters ages 45 to 64 growing by only 2%.
El Pasoans under 30 made up 24.6% of registered voters in 2016, but that dropped to 24.1% in 2020 and 23.4% this year.
Conversely, El Pasoans over 65 were 17.6% of registered voters in 2016, rising to 18.9% in 2020 and 20.4% this year.
The aging of the registered voter population aligns with U.S. Census Bureau data, which showed El Paso’s median age at 32.5 in the 2020 census and 33.9 in 2023 estimates.
El Paso voters by sex
Women have long made up the majority of registered voters in El Paso County, and that remains true this year. But men have closed that gap.
Men made up 47.6% of El Paso County registered voters in 2016, and grew that share to 47.9% in 2002 and 48.3% this year.
One reason that women outnumber men is because they live longer, on average. Among voters age 65-plus, women make up about 56% of registered voters. For voters under 30, the number of men and women are essentially even.
When looking at El Paso County voters who were newly registered to vote in 2024, men slightly outnumbered women.
That is a change from prior years, where women made up the slight majority of people newly registered to vote in an election year.
What could the registration numbers tell us?
Nationally, journalists and political operatives have focused on polling that shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump doing better among Hispanic voters than in his previous elections.
El Paso County voting records, which El Paso Matters uses for analysis of election trends, don’t include data on race or ethnicity. But combining Census Bureau population estimates with county voter registration data suggests that 75-79% of El Paso County registered voters are Hispanic.
In El Paso County, Trump got 26% of the vote in 2016, the lowest percentage on record for a major party presidential candidate. In 2020, his vote share increased to 31.5% – still less than any other major party nominee before 2016.
Whether Trump and other Republican candidates can make significant inroads in El Paso this year probably depends on whether younger voters – particularly young men – turn out in greater proportion than in recent elections.
El Paso has a long history of low turnout among registered voters, so the impact of registration trends on elections will depend on which registered voters show up. In 2016, El Paso County turnout was 51% of registered voters; in 2020, it ticked up to 55%.
Women registered voters, historically, have turned out at a larger rate than men in El Paso County. In the 2020 presidential election, 58% of women registered to vote cast ballots, compared to 51% or registered men.
El Paso doesn’t have a history of exit polling data, so there’s not much public information available on differing voting habits by sex and age in the county.
But nationally, a gender gap has led to women being more likely than men to support Democratic candidates, and men being more likely to support Republican candidates.
If men increase their turnout in El Paso this year at a rate greater than women, it could benefit Republican candidates. Likewise, if women continue to turn out at a much higher rate than men, it could benefit Democratic candidates.
And in El Paso, turnout increases as people age. In 2020, 67% of registered voters aged 65 and older turned out to vote; for those under 65, turnout was 52%.
Older El Pasoans are part of a generation that has heavily supported Democrats in the past. Recent national polling has indicated that younger Hispanic voters are more likely to favor Trump than older Hispanics. That’s particularly true of young Hispanic men.
Early voting in Texas began Monday and continues through Nov. 1. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5.
