This year marks the Buffalo Bills’ best chance of a Super Bowl win yet

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

(CNN) — I have been a Buffalo Bills fan for as long as I can remember. I have lived through a nearly 20-year playoff drought – I used to say the Bills haven’t made the playoffs since before my bar mitzvah.

Now, the Bills are in the midst of a historic run behind future Hall of Fame quarterback Josh Allen, yet they haven’t won a Super Bowl. That’s why every week until they win a Super Bowl in February (as I will it into existence), I’ll be keeping what I call a diary.

Mostly, this column will be a statistical analysis of why I think they will go all the way, as well as a reference or two to memories past.

This is the Bills’ best chance of a Super Bowl to date

Let’s start off very simply: the Bills have never had as good of a chance of winning a Super Bowl the last few seasons as they do now.

I’m not making this up as a homer – this is statistically true. The New York Times playoff simulator gives the Bills a 20% chance of finally raising the Lombardi Trophy as of time of publication. The Bills’ chances have never been higher at this point in the season dating back to when Allen first led the team to the playoffs in 2019.

On the most basic level, the team is 10-2. No Bills team this century has had a better record through 12 games. They also clinched the AFC East this past week; no franchise has clinched a division title so early since the league expanded the season to 17 games a few years ago.

Last year, you may recall, the Bills only won the division in the final game of the season down in Miami. They had to claw all the way back from being 6-6 on the campaign.

The two times the Bills were anywhere close to having a similar record as they do now during the Josh Allen era were 2020 and 2022.

In 2020, they were 9-3 before winning out the rest of the season. That team though was incredibly lucky. Through 12 games in the season, their point differential – the points they scored vs. gave up – was a mere 27 points. This year, the Bills are outscoring their opponents by 131 points after their 12th game.

When the Bills win, they usually win by a lot. Just three of their wins have been by one score (eight points or less). Often, they’re blowing teams out, such as when they crushed the San Francisco 49ers 35-10 last week.

Their 131-point differential is first in the AFC by 59 points and second in the NFL behind the Super Bowl-contending Detroit Lions.

Now, point differential isn’t everything (case in point, the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs), but it is one of the stats that is most predictive of playoff success.

Consider that the team that finished second in point differential at the end of the season has gone on to appear in the Super Bowl more than 40% of the time. The team that finished second in point differential has gone on to win the Super Bowl a little less than 30% of the time.

I think most Bills fans would take a roughly 30% chance of winning the Super Bowl right now.

Of course, we’ve seen a recent Bills team finish second in point differential and fail to produce: 2022. That 2022 squad was 9-3 then also moved 10-3 – slightly worse than this 2024 team is currently.

By this point in the season, however, the 2022 team was struggling. After winning their average game by 15 points through October, the best they could manage in the five games leading into Week 14 was averaging a meager four-point win.

The 2024 team, however, is hitting its stride. The Bills are averaging a 14-point win in their last five games heading into Week 14.

This 2024 stretch includes two score or more wins over two division leaders: the Chiefs and the Seattle Seahawks.

The bottom line is that the Bills have looked mighty good. I dare say they make me want to shout and shout (and perhaps, let it all out).

Favorite play of last week

The obvious answer here would be Allen’s receiving touchdown, but that would be too easy.

Instead, it’s this forced fumble by Taylor Rapp and recovery by Christian Benford.

Why?

First off, it demonstrates a “bend, don’t break” defense tremendously. The Bills tighten up near the goalline, even if they allow other teams to get close to the goalline.

Second, I’m always petrified that the Bills will lose. It was at this moment when I realized the Niners were never going to get within two scores the rest of the ball game.

Unhappy memory incoming…

I’ll keep this short. A few years ago, I, for some reason, agreed to do a late Sunday afternoon television appearance. I thought that the Bills game would be over by then.

Instead, I had just enough time to see the Bills make a tremendous goalline stand against the Minnesota Vikings. Then, as I was riding the elevator and couldn’t see play, Allen fumbled the ball with under a minute to go at the Bills own goalline.

If the Bills hadn’t fumbled, they would have just run out the clock by kneeling the ball. Instead, the Vikings eventually won in overtime.

It is the only game in the last 20 years where a team led with under a minute left, did not need to gain another first down in order to run out the clock… and lost.

Needless to say, I am hoping that never happens again.

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